Veiligheidssituatie westelijke provincies

On 24 February 2022, Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine. It quickly occupied large areas in the north, east and south, but Ukrainian counter-offensives drove Russian forces out of northern Ukraine and parts of the Kherson region in the south during 2022. Since late 2022, Russia has focused its offensive on eastern Ukraine, aiming to capture large parts of the Donbas region. In 2023, Ukraine launched a new counter-offensive in the south in an attempt to break through Russian lines, but failed.

Since then, Russia has largely held the military initiative. Apart from a limited incursion into the Russian province of Kursk in 2024, Ukraine has not launched any large-scale military operations since 2023. In 2026, Ukraine made limited territorial gains in the east once again, though this did not substantially alter the situation on the front line. Russia continues to advance slowly in the eastern Ukrainian provinces, despite heavy losses in personnel and equipment.

Since 2023, the use of drones on the battlefield has increased significantly, considerably changing the nature of warfare. At the same time, Russia has increasingly focused on shelling Ukrainian cities and civilian targets behind the front line using missiles and various types of drones. Since 2026, Ukraine has, in turn, succeeded in striking targets deep within Russia with long-range drones. These include military and industrial sites, oil refineries, and distribution centres. Through these attacks, Ukraine is seeking to disrupt Russian logistics whilst also ensuring that the Russian population feels the impact of the war. Meanwhile, the Russian government appears prepared to bear heavy losses on the front line and has given no indication of a possible end to the war.

Currently, there are no Russian ground troops present in the western provinces. These provinces are located far behind the active front line, meaning that Russian ground troops are unable to operate there directly. However, Russia is bombarding these areas with various types of drones and missiles. These attacks are damaging civilian infrastructure, including energy supplies, medical facilities, and educational institutions. While Russia is carrying out such attacks across Ukrainian territory as a whole, it is primarily the eastern provinces that are affected. The western provinces are also suffering damage, but on a much smaller scale than the rest of the country. Overall, there are far fewer security incidents in western Ukraine than in the east. The same ratio can be seen in the number of civilian casualties across the various Ukrainian regions. Furthermore, the highest number of civilian casualties in the western provinces occurred at the start of the war, after which there was a significant decline. There are also differences between the western provinces themselves in terms of the number of security incidents and civilian casualties.

The Russian invasion triggered a major wave of refugees, resulting in around 5.9 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in 2022. This figure fell to around 3.7 million registered IDPs by 2026. The majority of IDPs in 2026 originated from the eastern provinces.