Situatieschets

The political landscape in Venezuela has changed profoundly since 2019, when more than 50 countries recognised Juan Guaidó's interim government. In December 2022, the interim government was dissolved and government changes in countries including Brazil and Colombia led to a resumption of diplomatic relations with Maduro's government. In October 2023, the united opposition held primaries to field one candidate for the impending July 2024 presidential election. However, the winner of these primaries, María Corina Machado, who received more than 90 per cent of the vote, was banned from holding public office by the Supreme Court. In response, the opposition nominated Edmundo González, a 74-year-old diplomat, as the new presidential candidate. While the opposition was able to conduct a limited campaign, arrests of opposition supporters increased significantly.

Election day – 28 July 2024 – was relatively peaceful. A few hours after polling stations closed, electoral authorities declared that Maduro had won the election. However, the electoral authorities refused to make the results public and the opposition accused them of fraud. Most countries in the region, as well as the US and the EU, did not recognise Maduro's victory. The announcement of Maduro's election victory led to unrest and large demonstrations, resulting in mass arrests. At the time of writing, 25 people had died as a result of violence by the police during the demonstrations, Edmundo González had left the country and Machado was in hiding, making only sporadic public appearances.

Venezuela continued to be plagued by high levels of violence during the reference period. However, there was a decrease compared to previous years. On the InSight Crime Homicide Roundup for Latin America and the Carribbean, Venezuela is ranked 11th in 2023. According to the Observatorio Venezolano de Violencia, the national violent death rate was 26.8 violent deaths per 100,000 persons in 2023, compared with 40.4 violent deaths per 100,000 persons in the previous year. For the third consecutive year, the Capital District had the highest violent death rate with 50.8 violent deaths per 100,000 individuals in 2023.

Several structures of armed groups are active in Venezuela, ranging from the so-called megabandas, the colectivos, the sindicatos, the major drug trafficking organisations to the Colombian guerrilla groups. In recent years, the power and territorial presence of the security forces continued to weaken while the power of non-state armed groups increased. Since 2021, there has been a marked increase in areas outside the control of the national government, where political control and public facilities are in the hands of various armed groups. The authorities have also effectively cooperated with some of these criminal organisations. Since 2022, however, the authorities have made large-scale mega-operations against criminal gangs a central pillar of their security strategy. Several such operations took place in 2023, with raids on some of the most notorious prisons, such as Tocorón. However, analysts claim that these security operations are selective, targeting only those criminal organisations with which the authorities do not cooperate. According to the sources consulted, the decrease in violence is not only due to these stepped-up security operations, but also to the continuing exodus of Venezuelans abroad and the consolidation of territory by some major criminal organisations. Moreover, the latter are increasingly resorting to social control of the population rather than using force to maintain their territorial control.

For the tenth consecutive year, Venezuela is experiencing a severe socio-economic crisis. Heavy economic sanctions, declining oil production, hyperinflation and a shrinking economy year after year mean that poorer Venezuelans are unable or barely able to meet their basic needs. During 2019-2021, a de facto dollarisation of the country took place. Partly as a result of this and a relaxation of import controls, wealthier Venezuelans were again able to afford luxury goods. Inflation also began to slow. But for those without access to dollars, including all public sector workers who are paid in bolivars, the situation remained unchanged. The ENCOVI survey of living conditions in Venezuela showed a reduction in multidimensional poverty of almost 15% in 2022 (the first reduction in seven years). The ENCOVI figures for 2023 are similar to those for 2022, with 82.8% of households in poverty and 50.5% facing extreme poverty. Access to running water and electricity is often not guaranteed. Hospitals face severe shortages of medicine and infrastructure, and many hospitals outside Caracas only have running water for two days a week. The economic crisis has also affected education. Many teachers have fled abroad and there is a severe lack of infrastructure. By June 2024, nearly eight million Venezuelans had left their country, with the vast majority being hosted in the region, most notably in Colombia. Migration to the US has also increased in recent years.