This COI Focus analyses the impact of the war between Israel, the United States (US) and Iran on the security situation in Iraq during the period from 28 February to 17 April 2026. It shows how Iraq has become a secondary theatre of operations in this conflict.
The war began with large-scale air strikes on Iran, followed by rocket and drone attacks on American and Israeli targets by pro-Iranian militias in Iraq united under the name Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI). In response, the US and Israel carried out air strikes on militias belonging to the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF).
Iran also attacked targets in Iraq, particularly in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) area. The number of violent incidents rose sharply after the outbreak of war on 28 February 2026. Between 1 January and 17 April 2026, ACLED recorded 612 incidents and 243 deaths, with a clear peak after 28 February. This increase was primarily driven by air strikes and other forms of 'explosions/remote violence', including drones and missiles.
The main players are foreign military forces (the US, Israel and Iran) and pro-Iranian militias. While the US and Israel primarily target the PMF, Iran focuses on Kurdish opposition groups and US installations. In turn, pro-Iranian militias attack a wide range of targets, including military bases, airports, oil facilities and residential areas.
The violence is geographically concentrated in the KRG (mainly Erbil and Sulaymaniyah), Baghdad, and provinces such as Anbar and Ninewa. A relatively high number of deaths due to US and Israeli attacks has been recorded in Anbar, while Iranian attacks are mainly directed at northern Iraq.
The impact on civilians is limited, but difficult to quantify precisely. Cedoca has identified at least 34 incidents in which civilians were killed or injured, frequently as a result of air strikes or falling projectiles in residential areas.
Although a ceasefire in early April 2026 led to a temporary reduction in violence, the situation remains fragile. This ongoing conflict underscores Iraq's structural vulnerability, where militias and foreign actors exert significant influence over security and political stability.
Policy
Since 2013, the security situation in Iraq has largely been determined by the rise of and the battle against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). On 9 December 2017, then Prime Minister al-Abadi announced that the last piece of ISIS territory on Iraqi soil was recaptured and that this put an end to the ground war against the terror organization. The repulsion of ISIS and the recapture of territories occupied by the organization has had a clearly visible, positive impact on the security situation in Iraq. However, ISIS cells remain active in several Iraqi provinces and the Iraqi security forces, the Shia militias and the Kurdish Peshmerga still carry out actions against the organization. This displays itself in strong regional differences regarding the level of violence, the scale of random violence and the impact of the conflict. Additionally, as part of the conflict with the PKK, the Turkish army carries out air strikes and ground operations against PKK targets in the northern border regions of Iraq.